When is it REALLY too late to run for your party’s 2020 nomination?

JamesRussler

JamesRussler

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This has been a frequent topic of discussion over the years, and the answer varies depending on who you ask.

But the simplest answer is that each state has its own deadline for candidates to file for inclusion on the the primary ballot. The dates for most of the upcoming Democratic Primaries are as follows:

November
Alabama: Nov. 8
Arkansas: Nov. 12
New Hampshire: Nov. 15
California: Nov. 26
Florida: Nov. 30*

December
Tennessee: Dec. 3
Oklahoma: Dec. 4
Arizona: Dec. 9
Colorado: Dec. 9
Idaho: Dec. 11
Louisiana: Dec. 11
Virginia: Dec. 12
Michigan: Dec. 13
Vermont: Dec. 16
Ohio: Dec. 18
Missouri: Dec. 24
North Carolina: Dec. 27

One more detail: Because Iowa holds caucuses, not a primary with a standardized ballot, it has no filing deadline.​

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/us/politics/2020-primaries-deadlines.html

Mike Bloomberg just filed to be on the ballot in Alabama, so assuming he does the same for other states (such as Arkansas, which has a deadline of tomorrow) he can still appear on every ballot.

But the big question on everyone’s mind is when is it too late for Hillary to Jump in the race? She has already missed the deadline for Alabama, and there’s been no indication of plans to file in Arkansas, or anywhere else. IMO, this is fatal to her candidacy. Here’s why: primary delegates from each state are usually apportioned among top contenders. Thus, top candidates can usually offset a narrow “loss” or string of losses with an exceptionally strong showing in another state (this is why primaries last so long in recent years). The same is not true for candidates who fail to meet the vote threshold for delegates, or who do not compete at all. They typically get zero delegates. In a close race, getting zero delegates can burden the candidate with an almost insurmountable delegate deficit. Hillary already has an uphill battle, having missed the AL deadline. However, if Hillary doesn’t file for Arkansas tomorrow (Nov. 12th), I am satisfied there is no plausible way she can become the nominee. She will be officially done, unless all of the other top candidates mysteriously drop dead.

But the conventional wisdom amongst politico hipsters is that November 15th is the true “last day” to get in the race. Why? That is New Hampshire’s primary candidate filing deadline. NH of course has the nation’s first true primary (IA merely holds a caucus), which gives the winner tremendous momentum. Typically whoever wins NH gets the nom, although there have been some exceptions, such as Hillary’s win in 2008. And in that case, Obama got the same amount of delegates as Hillary (9), so it was basically a tie. Bottom line, NH is a crucial primary state. If Hillary doesn’t file in NH by Nov. 15th, she is officially ruled out as a nominee in the eyes of most observers.

From there on out, it becomes a question of how implausible it is for a candidate to win the nom while forfeiting an increasing number of pledged delegates. At some point, when the number of missed filing deadlines accounts for more than half of the pledged delegates, it becomes mathematically impossible for a candidate to win. I don’t know what that date is, but you are welcome to do the math yourself. It’s probably around mid-December.

So how late is too late?
—Realistically ==> Nov. 8th, 2019
—Really realistically ==> Nov. 15th, 2019
—Really ==> Mid-December, 2019

Anyone see it differently?

DISCUSS

***EDIT***
So I did the math based on available filing deadlines (they’re not always easy to find). This is what I found:

All of the state primaries listed above represent a total of 1605 pledged delegates. However, Texas, with 228 pledged delegates, apparently has a deadline of 12/9 (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/voter/2020-important-election-dates.shtml). South Carolina, with 54 pledged delegates, has a deadline of 12/4 (http://scdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/SCDP_DSP830.pdf). Massachusetts, with 91 delegates, has a deadline of 12/20 (http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elepres/pres2020idx.htm). And Minnesota, with 75 pledged delegates, has a deadline of 12/31. Collectively, these contests represent 2053 delegates, which is a majority of the total 3,979 pledged delegates.

Therefore, at the very least, by December 31, 2019, it is mathematically “too late” to decide to run for the democratic nomination. However, I could not find the filing deadline for every state, and some may be before this date. If so, the “too late” date may be sooner.
 
Last edited:
As funny as it would be, Hillary won't run again this year. She used up all of her favors in 2016 and failed miserably.

There's no way that the big money corporate Dem donors who decide the nominee are going to throw their weight behind Hydrogen Hillary again.

Losing again to Trump in 2020 is the best scenario for the Democrat party. They need a complete rebuild and reassement to ever become viable again.
 
Well, I think you would need a real needle mover in order to change things around at this point. Not sure who or what kind of person would qualify. Even Trump had a long build-up.
 
Btw I cringe at the thought of Bloomberg actually believing he's the one
 
Limit Smasher said:
As funny as it would be, Hillary won't run again this year. She used up all of her favors in 2016 and failed miserably.

There's no way that the big money corporate Dem donors who decide the nominee are going to throw their weight behind Hydrogen Hillary again.

Losing again to Trump in 2020 is the best scenario for the Democrat party. They need a complete rebuild and reassement to ever become viable again.
Click to expand...

I doubt she would, but even if she wanted to now, it’s basically too late:)
 
JDragon said:
Btw I cringe at the thought of Bloomberg actually believing he's the one
Click to expand...

Love him or hate him, it’s still possible for him to be on the primary ballot in every state. Hillary, not so much.
 
Hillary's ego and sense of entitlement could make her run again imo, but would the Dems accept her? And we still have Oprah and Obama.
 
JamesRussler said:
tenor.gif


This has been a frequent topic of discussion over the years, and the answer varies depending on who you ask.

But the simplest answer is that each state has its own deadline for candidates to file for inclusion on the the primary ballot. The dates for most of the upcoming Democratic Primaries are as follows:

November
Alabama: Nov. 8
Arkansas: Nov. 12
New Hampshire: Nov. 15
California: Nov. 26
Florida: Nov. 30*

December
Tennessee: Dec. 3
Oklahoma: Dec. 4
Arizona: Dec. 9
Colorado: Dec. 9
Idaho: Dec. 11
Louisiana: Dec. 11
Virginia: Dec. 12
Michigan: Dec. 13
Vermont: Dec. 16
Ohio: Dec. 18
Missouri: Dec. 24
North Carolina: Dec. 27

One more detail: Because Iowa holds caucuses, not a primary with a standardized ballot, it has no filing deadline.​

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/us/politics/2020-primaries-deadlines.html

Mike Bloomberg just filed to be on the ballot in Alabama, so assuming he does the same for other states (such as Arkansas, which has a deadline of tomorrow) he can still appear on every ballot.

But the big question on everyone’s mind is when is it too late for Hillary to Jump in the race? She has already missed the deadline for Alabama, and there’s been no indication of plans to file in Arkansas, or anywhere else. IMO, this is fatal to her candidacy. Here’s why: primary delegates from each state are usually apportioned among top contenders. Thus, top candidates can usually offset a narrow “loss” or string of losses with an exceptionally strong showing in another state (this is why primaries last so long in recent years). The same is not true for candidates who fail to meet the vote threshold for delegates, or who do not compete at all. They typically get zero delegates. In a close race, getting zero delegates can burden the candidate with an almost insurmountable delegate deficit. Hillary already has an uphill battle, having missed the AL deadline. However, if Hillary doesn’t file for Arkansas tomorrow (Nov. 12th), I am satisfied there is no plausible way she can become the nominee. She will be officially done, unless all of the other top candidates mysteriously drop dead.

But the conventional wisdom amongst politico hipsters is that November 15th is the true “last day” to get in the race. Why? That is New Hampshire’s primary candidate filing deadline. NH of course has the nation’s first true primary (IA merely holds a caucus), which gives the winner tremendous momentum. Typically whoever wins NH gets the nom, although there have been some exceptions, such as Hillary’s win in 2008. And in that case, Obama got the same amount of delegates as Hillary (9), so it was basically a tie. Bottom line, NH is a crucial primary state. If Hillary doesn’t file in NH by Nov. 15th, she is officially ruled out as a nominee in the eyes of most observers.

From there on out, it becomes a question of how implausible it is for a candidate to win the nom while forfeiting an increasing number of pledged delegates. At some point, when the number of missed filing deadlines accounts for more than half of the pledged delegates, it becomes mathematically impossible for a candidate to win. I don’t know what that date is, but you are welcome to do the math yourself. It’s probably around mid-December.

So how late is too late?
—Realistically ==> Nov. 8th, 2019
—Really realistically ==> Nov. 15th, 2019
—Really ==> Mid-December, 2019

Anyone see it differently?

DISCUSS

***EDIT***
So I did the math based on available filing deadlines (they’re not always easy to find). This is what I found:

All of the state primaries listed above represent a total of 1605 pledged delegates. However, Texas, with 228 pledged delegates, apparently has a deadline of 12/9 (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/voter/2020-important-election-dates.shtml). South Carolina, with 54 pledged delegates, has a deadline of 12/4 (http://scdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/SCDP_DSP830.pdf). Massachusetts, with 91 delegates, has a deadline of 12/20 (http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elepres/pres2020idx.htm). And Minnesota, with 75 pledged delegates, has a deadline of 12/31. Collectively, these contests represent 2053 delegates, which is a majority of the total 3,979 pledged delegates.

Therefore, at the very least, by December 31, 2019, it is mathematically “too late” to decide to run for the democratic nomination. However, I could not find the filing deadline for every state, and some may be before this date. If so, the “too late” date may be sooner.
Click to expand...
We have to talk @Lead into having an election first....;)
 
So there is a chance for Obama’s 3rd term.
 
The country would reject her again. Hillary is a loser and you know it's bad when even the radical Left don't want any part of you.

It would be interesting to see her announce that she's running though, so the media could start saying the IG report is just Trump investigating his "political rivals."
 
Never. Nancy Pelosi has been running for president since the day Trump got elected.
 
Starman said:
Never. Nancy Pelosi has been running for president since the day Trump got elected.
Click to expand...
Disagree.

Nancy has seen herself as a self appointed kingmaker/queenmaker since Trump got elected.
 
JDragon said:
Btw I cringe at the thought of Bloomberg actually believing he's the one
Click to expand...

Could be, Trump is already targetting him which sets up media coverage and Bloomberg can actually fund his own campaign to a point where he can out spend everyone. He can also out trump Trump in the successful billionaire pissing contest
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
Could be, Trump is already targetting him which sets up media coverage and Bloomberg can actually fund his own campaign to a point where he can out spend everyone. He can also out trump Trump in the successful billionaire pissing contest
Click to expand...


Which Democrat would want Bloomberg and why?

What does he bring to the table that Biden does not?
 
JDragon said:
Which Democrat would want Bloomberg and why?

What does he bring to the table that Biden does not?
Click to expand...

The ability to form coherent sentences, cash on hand, respect among the business community
 
squeezewax said:
Hillary's ego and sense of entitlement could make her run again imo, but would the Dems accept her? And we still have Oprah and Obama.
Click to expand...
She is a woman and deserves it you sexist bigot !
 
doesn't matter, the party and media decide before any of this begins
 
ShadowRun said:
She is a woman and deserves it you sexist bigot !
Click to expand...

And just to be clear, the biggest takeaway ITT is not that Hillary won’t be the 2020 Democratic nominee (although it’s now clear she can’t be).

Rather, no one other than the current declared Democratic candidates can win the nomination at this point. That applies to all other perennial undeclared “dark horse” and “wild card” candidates such as Mark Cuban, Michelle Obama, or The Rock.
 
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