MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC on FOX 28’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event.

UFC on FOX 28 takes place Saturday at Amway Center in Orlando, Fla., and it airs on FOX following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.

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Josh Emmett (13-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC)

Josh Emmett

Staple info:

• Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70″
• Last fight: Knockout win over Ricardo Lamas (Dec. 16, 2017)
• Camp: Team Alpha Male (Sacramento, Calif.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ NAIA collegiate wrestler
+ 4 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Will shift stances
+ Heavy crosses and hooks
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Good takedown ability
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Scrambles well/positionally aware

Jeremy Stephens (27-14 MMA, 14-13 UFC)

Jeremy Stephens

Staple info:

• Height: 5’9″ Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71″
• Last fight: TKO win over Dooho Choi (Jan. 14, 2018)
• Camp: Alliance MMA (San Diego, Calif.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 17 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Heavy right hand
^ Overhands and uppercuts
+ Hard kicks and knees
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Strong hips and base
+ Improved submission defense
^ Good grip and hand-fighting

Summary:

The main event in Orlando features a fun featherweight fight between Josh Emmett and Jeremy Stephens.

Storming the rankings at 145 pounds after a stunning knockout over Ricardo Lamas, Emmett – a talent from Team Alpha Male – will now step into his first headliner slot under the UFC banner.

Welcoming Emmett to the main stage is Stephens, a battle-tested veteran who is in a late-career renaissance while looking to feast on all comers.

Starting off on the feet, we have a matchup of two heavy-handed strikers who go about punctuating their presence in different ways.

Never shy to exchange, Stephens’ love for the brawl has traditionally been something that he’s worn like a merit badge. And while fans and pundits may fuel that narrative even further, we have steadily seen technical improvements from the 31-year-old since his initial move to Alliance MMA.

Mixing in a healthy dose of feints into what has shown to be improved footwork, Stephens has added to the effectiveness of his pressuring approach. Incorporating more kicks into his repertoire, the Iowa native will smartly work in assaults to both the body and legs of his opposition once establishing his range.

In his last two bouts, we saw Stephens attack both Gilbert Melendez and Dooho Choi’s legs with impunity from the opening bell. More importantly, we saw Stephens target their lower leg extremities, a tactic that has been growing in popularity.

Targeting the tibial region of the leg is not only a painful attack that’s difficult to defend against, but it is also harder to counter off of given the flexibility of range that it allows for the attacker. Although these attacks could help Stephens mitigate some of his opponent’s offensive opportunities, sharp strikers who can counter have traditionally been Stephens’ common culprit.

Against Emmett, the veteran will need to be firing on all systems.

An athletic and explosive mover, Emmett displays similar stylistic nods to his Team Alpha Male stablemates to go along with an eye for technical detail.

Often circling along the outside, Emmett will offer an array of looks in an effort to create alternate angles of approach. Whether he is feinting heavily and shuffle-stepping his way into range with a right hand, or shifting to southpaw to enter off of kicks, Emmett has power in almost everything he throws.

The seven-year pro also carries craft to his game, demonstrating slick head movement and an awareness of angles that speaks louder than one would expect from his resume.

A deceptive counter puncher, Emmett does his best work when walking his opponents into his favored heavy right hand. And with a crushing check-hook that he seems to be getting the hang of, Emmett’s traps only appear to be getting stronger.

Should striking stanzas remain closely contested on the feet, then we may see one of these two try and take things to the floor.

Emmett, the former NAIA collegiate wrestler, will have the on-paper edge in the takedown department. Whether he is in the open or against the fence, Emmett should have a serviceable array of options he can exercise.

Still, he will need to be mindful of not getting stuck clinching with his counterpart for too long.

Stephens, who originally came up in Iowa, is no stranger to the integration of wrestling into his MMA game. Although he is often found playing defense in the clinch due to stylistic matchups, the 31-year-old is not opposed to getting offensive with knees or elbows if given the opportunity.

Stephens also has gotten better about using his offensive wrestling, occasionally going to his serviceable double-leg to stamp close rounds. These type of tactics will serve Stephens well on paper, but taking down Emmett is not likely something that will come easy.

Emmett is also no slouch on the mat himself. He knows his way inside of a scramble, and he can pass and strike with competency from topside when he wants. From the bottom, Emmett is not afraid to attack what’s there – chaining chokes, leg locks and other submissions that he parlays into scramble opportunities in which he uses to stand. In fact, both men do well with getting back to their feet, making me think that ground exchanges may be short and sweet.

The oddsmakers and public seem to be showing respect to both sides, listing Stephens -155 and Emmett +135 as of this writing.

Although I initially thought the line could be a bit wider, I agree with the odds above. Stylistically, Emmett is a very live ‘dog, particularly early.

Emmett looks to be one of the heavier-hitters moving into the weight class, and more importantly, he has a deceptive ability to draw opponents into counters. Should Stephen’s aggression get the better of him, then we could see another shocking upset.

That said, I feel that Stephens’ improvements have come to shine when having Eric Del Fierro and Alliance MMA in his corner, and his performance against Choi – one of the sharpest counter strikers in the division – was a culmination of this. Should Stephens get past Emmett’s early offerings, then I favor his battle-tested pace and pressure over the course of a potential five-round affair. Ultimately, I see Stephens’ name on the scorecards after 25 minutes of competitive thrills.

Official pick: Stephens by decision

For more on UFC on FOX 28, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.

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