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German election: Social Democrats secure narrow win as CDU plunges to historic low – as it happened

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Mon 27 Sep 2021 03.36 EDTFirst published on Sun 26 Sep 2021 10.07 EDT
Olaf Scholz seeks three-way coalition after SPD's narrow German election win – video

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If you’d like to see Olaf Scholz in action, here is the SPD leader and current finance minister speaking to his party on election night, telling them that Germans have voted for the SPD because “they want the name of the next chancellor to be Olaf Scholz”:

Olaf Scholz seeks three-way coalition after SPD's narrow German election win – video

Who is Christian Lindner?

Christian Lindner, who has led the business-friendly FDP since 2013, will be the second kingmaker in Germany’s coalition negotiations. The 42-year-old took on the party’s leadership in 2013, after a disastrous election result, which saw it exit the Bundestag.

He led its revival and return to parliament in 2017, but left coalition talks with Angela Merkel’s CDU, saying at the time, “It is better not to govern than to govern wrongly.”

Christian Lindner, FDP party leader, leaves following a TV broadcast on the parliamentary elections in Berlin. Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

This time around he has made it clear his preference would be for an alliance with the centre-right party. Such a coalition would have to include the Greens (and would colloquially be called a “Jamaica” coalition due to the parties’ colours).

But Lindner has appeared at times less keen on the alliance with the Greens. He told the Augsburger Allgemeine last week that the only two things the FDP and the Greens could agree on was “the legalisation of cannabis”.

The fiscal conservative, who, unlike the Greens, says the market should play a key role in combating climate change, has also made it clear he wants the prize of the finance ministry in return for his cooperation.

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Who is Annalena Baerbock?

The Greens’ candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock, who will now play the role of kingmaker in coalition negotiations, has led the party its best ever result in a national election – but the path has been a rocky one.

Promising a climate-friendly “new start”, her party briefly led the opinion polls after her nomination in April, appealing to younger voters with promises of a greener, more sustainable policy and economy.

But her campaign stumbled after Baerbock was accused of plagiarising passages from a recently published book from news articles and Wikipedia entries without crediting them, accusations she denied. That came after other scandals including her failure to register extra payments to parliament, as well as errors on her CV.

Once a competitive trampolinist, the 40-year-old is a graduate of the London School of Economics and has been a member of the German parliament since 2013. She became a co-leader of the Greens in 2018.

The co-leader of Germany’s Green party and the party’s candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock, and co-leader Robert Habeck speak at their electoral party. Photograph: David Gannon/AFP/Getty Images
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If you speak German, here’s an interesting analysis from the Süddeutsche Zeitung, which suggests that Germany wanted change – but also not really, noting that the election results throw up more questions than they answer.

“Germans longed for new horizons, but in the end they didn’t really trust themselves,” the authors write. They discuss Germans changing allegiances in the run-up to the poll, and make the point that never before has the strongest party in the Bundestag been simultaneously so weak.

Bei der Bundestagswahl wollte Deutschland den Wechsel - aber nicht so ganz. Warum das so ist - eine Analyse in Daten und Grafiken. #btw #ddj https://t.co/Lj2bw11MAF

— Süddeutsche Zeitung (@SZ) September 27, 2021
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Summary

It’s just past 6am in Germany, where people are waking up to the official preliminary results of Sunday’s federal election. If you’re just joining us, here’s a brief summary of what they were:

  • The centre-left SPD and their chancellor candidate, Olaf Scholz, have won 25.7% of the vote, giving them a slim lead over their centre-right CDU rivals.
  • Angela Merkel’s CDU party and its candidate, Armin Laschet, sank to a historic low in a federal election, with 24.1 %.
  • The Greens, led by Annalena Baerbock, have secured their best result in a national poll, with early results putting them at 14.8% – in third place and ahead of the liberal FDP, which posted 11.5%, also a small improvement.
  • The far-right AfD is set to enter parliament for the second time, on 10.3%.
  • The leftwing Die Linke party failed to clear the 5% hurdle to enter parliament, winning just 4.9%, but will be represented anyway due to a loophole that excepts them if they win three direct mandates.
  • The Bundestag will welcome its first transgender MPS, after Green candidates Tessa Ganserer and Nyke Slawik won seats.
  • The parties will now embark on “exploratory talks” to form a coalition government, with a three-way coalition considered the most likely at this point.
  • Likely constellations include a so-called green-yellow-red “traffic light” coalition, with the SPD, Greens and FDP, or a “Jamaican” coalition of the CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP.
  • Both Scholz and Laschet have insisted they will form the government, with Laschet pointing out that “it hasn’t always been the case that the party in first place provides the chancellor”. The Greens and the FDP will play kingmakers.
  • Merkel will remain chancellor while coalition talks proceed – that could be a lengthy process, with talks lasting three months in 2017.
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The liberal FDP and the Greens are regarded as kingmakers in this election, with both of the three-way coalitions considered most likely to succeed the current government containing both parties.

German media is now turning its attention to how the two, which have little in common, should negotiate. “Scholz and Laschet have to approach them now: the kingmakers,” the Bild tabloid wrote.

#Scholz oder #Laschet? Alles hängt nun von den Königsmachern ab: Liberale und Grüne haben in der Hand, wer Kanzler wird. Und im Hintergrund werkeln sie schon an der künftigen Regierung.https://t.co/nFFdrgCbXS #BTW21 pic.twitter.com/6LOSTTzRHj

— BILD (@BILD) September 26, 2021

FDP leader Christian Lindner was quick to note on Sunday evening that “perhaps the Greens and the FDP should talk to each other first”.

He has indicated his clear preference for a coalition with the CDU/CSU but the Greens, who posted their best ever result on Sunday, have been vague about their preferences, with chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock saying only that it was time for “a fresh start”.

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Official preliminary results

The official preliminary results are in and the centre-left SPD has won Germany’s election by a slim margin, gaining 25.7% of the vote, according to the federal election agency, while Angela Merkel’s CDU has crashed to a historic low of 24.1%.

The Greens came in on third place with 14.8% of the vote, while the liberal FDP was on 11.5%. The far-right AfD was on 10.3%.

The CSU, the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, has experienced its worst result since the first Bundestag election in 1949, the Tagesspiegel newspaper is reporting, having won just 31.7 % according to preliminary results.

While CSU boss Markus Soeder said he was “not pleased” about it, he did find a silver-lining, noting that “it’s still significantly higher than the country-wide [CDU] result”.

Soeder bowed out of the race to become the CDU/CSU’s candidate to succeed Merkel as chancellor in April, despite beating Armin Laschet in popularity polls.

The latest results suggest that the leftwing Die Linke party will still be represented in the Bundestag despite failing the country’s 5% hurdle to enter parliament.

That’s down to a loophole in election law that means that if a party secures three seats via a “direct mandate” – Germans cast two votes, one for the person they want to represent their constituency, the direct mandate, and one for a party list – the hurdle no longer applies.

Currently veteran leftwinger Gregor Gysi and Gesine Lötzsch in Berlin as well as Sören Pellmann in Leipzig are believed to have retained their seats.

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Germany will in fact have two transgender women in parliament for the first time, Spiegel reports, with Nyke Slawik projected to join her fellow Green Tessa Ganserer.

Writing on Twitter, Slawik said she could “hardly believe” her win, adding she hoped that “we will today open a new chapter of self-determination in politics and that we can end the years-long patronising of queer people.”

Noch nie in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik saß eine Transperson im Bundestag. Nach der #Bundestagswahl wird sich das ändern: Mit Nyke #Slawik und Tessa #Ganserer sichern sich zwei transgeschlechtliche Politikerinnen einen Platz im Parlament. https://t.co/8PMsPwkgzT

— DER SPIEGEL (@derspiegel) September 26, 2021
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