Keir Starmer needs to win over “Stevenage Woman” to reach Downing Street, senior Labour figures have been told, after being briefed that a group of socially conservative, predominantly female voters have become critical in the party’s quest for a stable parliamentary majority.
Senior figures from Starmer’s team were last week privately presented with analysis that a segment of suburban voters – full-time workers in their early 40s who have children and who have become disillusioned with politics – hold significant power in the seats the party needs to win.
Strategists disclosed that among the 100 top marginals where Labour is fighting the Tories, these “disillusioned suburban” voters – which they personified as Stevenage Woman – are the largest group in 88 of them, including in the critical areas of the Midlands, south and east of England.
Such voters are typically struggling with stagnant wages and rising costs and have little interest in the day-to-day machinations of Westminster.
According to the briefing, attended by figures including national campaign co-ordinator Shabana Mahmood and Starmer’s campaign director Morgan McSweeney, these voters believe that “we should not increase immigration numbers. They believe Britain should be proud of its past. They believe that young people do not respect British values.”
The briefing advised that Labour “must hold its line on social and cultural issues” and not offer vague promises that counted for little with a group sceptical about politicians.
The group backed the Conservatives by 44% to Labour’s 35% at the last election, but now favours Labour by 51% to 23%, according to new modelling of the electorate. Many of its members remain up for grabs. Of the total share of possible Stevenage Woman-style voters, 28% are yet to decide who they will vote for.
The briefing, presented on Wednesday by the Labour Together group, comes as senior party figures target a parliamentary majority that outnumbers the Socialist Campaign Group – a bloc of MPs on the left that is thought to be about 20 strong.
Labour’s left has become increasingly infuriated with Starmer after he ditched a series of commitments that won him the backing in the leadership election of large swathes of members previously supportive of Jeremy Corbyn. The recent decision to block Corbyn from standing for Labour in Islington North has taken relations to a new low. The new briefing over Labour’s direction will cause further alarm.
Labour Together is close to Starmer and was instrumental in his leadership campaign. McSweeney was its director before joining Starmer’s senior team. Its analysis is one of the first major attempts at profiling Britain’s electorate since Rishi Sunak became prime minister.
The report acknowledges that there are concerns on the left that pursuing the new band of voters could “imperil the Labour party’s core support”, but argues there is no electoral case for the concern – claiming that Starmer is winning more of Britain’s most leftwing voters than Corbyn did.
Analysts said Stevenage Woman leaned a little towards social conservatism on cultural issues and a little to the left on the economy.
The study marks the latest attempt to personify the kind of voter pivotal to an election. Most recently, the idea of “Workington Man” came to represent a band of voters in the so-called red-wall seats willing to switch to the Tories from Labour and the Brexit party.
But the new report says that voters with the characteristics of Workington Man – mainly older male, economically insecure and overwhelmingly pro-Brexit voters – have already abandoned the Tories.
While 49% voted for Boris Johnson in 2019, the analysts say this has collapsed to 15%. On this trajectory, the report says: “If the support Labour currently receives from this group were mirrored on election day, Labour would win back every one of its 30 lost red wall seats.”
To win over Workington Man and Stevenage Woman, the report says Labour must recognise both are more conservative on social and cultural issues than most of Labour’s current backers, requiring a tougher stance on crime, immigration and defence. They also need to see ambitious plans to revive Britain’s economy.
However, some analysts and pollsters believe that an increasingly complex electorate makes shorthands such as Stevenage Woman much less important than in previous decades.
But Josh Simons, a former Labour policy adviser and now Labour Together’s director, said both groups were critical to a Labour win. “Workington Man held his nose at the last election and voted Conservative, because above all else, he hated everything Jeremy Corbyn stood for,” he said. “Now, he’s been let down by the Tories and he’s deserted them. Support in red wall seats like Workington is flooding back to Labour.
“But for Labour to get a strong, working majority, it needs to win another voter too. We call her Stevenage Woman. She’s younger, struggling to get by, and wary of the promises that many politicians make. In 2019, the Tories and Labour were neck and neck with her. Now, she’s voting Labour two-to-one.
“If Labour can keep, engage and mobilise her, they’re on track for a large majority. The battle for the next election is the battle for Stevenage Woman.”