Shia cleric or Revolutionary Guards? How Khamenei succession will play out inside Iran
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now 84, has been in power since 1989. What will happen when he dies? His death may lead to a hybrid military-Islamic regime, with members of the Revolutionary Guards imposing a more pragmatic yet equally corrupt regime. It is time for the opposition to find a unified leader they can rally behind and that can help mobilize Iranians in the transition, writes Bahram Farrokhi in Persian-language media Kayhan-London.
As Iran's aging leader Ali Khamenei moves inexorably to the end of his life, there is acute interest in who or what type of leadership will succeed him. Will Shia clerics elect a successor using the institutional procedures that put Khamenei himself into office (in June 1989), or will the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which already have a grip on numerous institutions and business sectors, grab power? Either way, ordinary Iranians and the reformist and opposition groups that would represent them, will have little say in this jostling between internal power-brokers.
As I have written before, the Leader's death at a time of marked domestic and foreign hostility to the Islamic Republic will be a delicate moment, but the regime has shown it has all the gall and lack of scruples needed to weather history's squalls. Opponents should not imagine, as they understandably did in past decades, that the death of a key figure could bring this outfit crashing down.
As the regime takes stock of the dismally low voter turnout in the parliamentary elections of early March and tires of its useless efforts to win popular legitimacy, Khamenei's successors may turn to one of several options.
They may firstly decide to end decades of institutional and electoral theater meant to give credence to the regime's claim that it is a republic; secondly, reveal the 'trump card' of a nuclear bomb in a bid to force the West to deal with the regime more respectfully, as it does with Pakistan and North Korea; or thirdly, engineer an overhaul that will strip the clergy of powers in favor of Revolutionary Guards officers.
Would these options aid the regime's survival? Transforming the country into a closed, autocratic regime, literally run by a despot like North Korea's Dear Leader, could harm its diplomatic and economic ties with a range of foreign partners, and likely worsen an already dismal economic situation. That could provoke yet another revolt by desperate Iranians. [...]
— Read the full article by Bahram Farrokhi for Kayhan-London, translated into English by Worldcrunch.
• UN says Gaza starvation could be a war crime: A United Nations official concluded that Israel’s restrictions to humanitarian aid in Gaza may amount to a war crime. The UN’s senior human rights official, Volker Türk, said that intent must be proven to count as a war crime, but that “Israel bore significant blame.” The statement follows a Tuesday report by the UN that an “entirely man-made” famine is imminent in the north of Gaza by May. Follow international coverage of the situation in Gaza on Worldcrunch.
• Ukraine downs more than 25 Russian drones: Russia launched missile air strikes over southern and eastern Ukraine Wednesday night that killed three people. Ukraine’s military took down more than 26 Russian drones in retaliation, according to an announcement by Ukrainian Air Force Commander, Mykola Oleshchuk. President Vladimir Putin responded that Russian forces will shoot down Western-supplied F-16 fighters in Ukraine. Read more on the Ukraine-Russia war on Worldcrunch.
• Journalist Evan Gershkovich behind bars in Russia for 1 year: As Friday marks one year since Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested and jailed on charges of espionage, his parents spoke out about his detention and efforts to have him released. Mikhail Gershkovich, father of the 32-year-old reporter, told ABC News that both the U.S. and Russian governments “have expressed willingness to negotiate” for his release.
• Baltimore bridge collapse update: The bodies of two construction workers on the now-collapsed Baltimore bridge were recovered Wednesday. The two victims were among eight construction workers on the Francis Scott Key Bridge, which crumbled upon direct impact with a Singeaporean cargo ship early Tuesday. Federal safety investigations into the ship’s voyage data reveal its pilot radioed for help after reporting a power loss.
• Sam Bankman-Fried to be sentenced for fraud: Sam Bankman-Fried, former billionaire and crypto mogul, is due to be sentenced in a New York court Thursday after being convicted of fraud and money laundering in November. Prosecutors want to jail Bankman-Fried for up to 50 years, a sentence that his lawyers describe as a “medieval view of punishment.”
• China's Xiaomi to enter cut-throat EV market: Chinese consumer electronics giant Xiaomi is launching its first electric vehicle (EV) at a Beijing press conference Thursday. The vehicle, titled the SU7, is a bold foray into automaking for Xiaomi, the third largest smartphone manufacturer in the world, behind Samsung and Apple, and is a challenge to Chinese automaker BYD and Elon Musk’s Tesla.
• Oxford English Dictionary adds Japanese words: The Oxford English Dictionary (OED) added 23 Japanese words in its most recent update, with over half of the entries relating to food or cooking. OED editors collarborated with researchers at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. New words include Katsu, a piece of meat coated in panko breadcrumbs, Donburi, a Japanese rice dish, and Okonomiyaki, a savory pancake.
Nigeria, journey through the African giant's economic growing pains
The reforms introduced by Bola Tinubu, the new president of Africa's most populous country, will take time to have an effect on the daily lives of Nigerians. In the meantime, the population is suffering from inflation, corruption and insecurity. The disillusioned youth are impatient and dream of elsewhere, reports Guillaume de Calignon in French daily Les Echos.
🇳🇬 Nigeria is very much in the spotlight these days. The African giant is a promising market. The continent's leading GDP, the country has a population of 220 million this year. And the United Nations forecasts a population of 400 million for 2055. By then, it will be more populous than the United States. But it also has its problems. Insecurity, smuggling and theft of hydrocarbons have reached such a level that oil revenues are tending to fall. Endemic poverty, terrorism and civil war with Boko Haram in the north are undermining the country. That is not to mention catastrophic economic policy in recent years.
💻 Even though the economy is sluggish, sectors such as high-tech are booming. The image of the "self-made man" is very important to Nigerians. Street slogans such as "no food for lazy men" are commonplace. Much of this "entrepreneurship" is explained by the need to survive. But that's not all. "Nigerians have an American way of doing business," says a Frenchman who arrived in Lagos a few years ago. "They're pragmatic, hard-working and enterprising."
✈️ Many young people have become disillusioned since the mid-2010s and the economic difficulties. Emigration is on the rise. Opeyimi, a thirty-something Access Bank executive, says that "Of the 70 students in my class at the University of Lagos, 60 wanted to go abroad, to Europe, Canada or the United States. And they did. In fact, we don't believe in ourselves." "The country has a lot of very competent people, but they tend to leave as soon as they can," says Karim Belkaïd, head of Nigeria operations for the parapetroleum company DBN.
➡️ Read more on Worldcrunch.com
“We will not be cowed into silence, submission or subservience."
— In the latest flare up in the South China Sea, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. threatened “countermeasures” as he responded to what is seen as hostilities by China’s coast guard within Manilla’s exclusive economic zone. Read about what China’s silence says about the escalating row in the region.
Palestinians line up as food is distributed in Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp. A United Nations official said that Israel’s restrictions to humanitarian aid in Gaza may amount to a war crime. — Photo: Mahmoud Issa/dpa/ZUMA
✍️ Newsletter by Katrina Scalise and Ione Gildroy