UFC on ESPN 20: Chiesa vs. Magny Odds, Schedule, Predictions

Alex Ballentine@Ballentine_AlexX.com LogoFeatured ColumnistJanuary 19, 2021

UFC on ESPN 20: Chiesa vs. Magny Odds, Schedule, Predictions

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    John Locher/Associated Press

    The UFC keeps the 2021 calendar rolling with a rare midweek card featuring Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny on Wednesday from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. 

    The card will be the second of three in two weeks for the organization and serves as the lead-in to the much anticipated fight between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier at UFC 257 on Saturday. 

    Chiesa is on a roll with three straight wins over Carlos Condit, Diego Sanchez and Rafael dos Anjos. Magny is on a three-fight run of his own with wins over Li Jingliang, Anthony Rocco Martin and Robbie Lawler. 

    Both have garnered enough momentum to be headlining Fight Night cards without quite getting into title contention at this point. However, the winner is going to be in line for another crack at the prime time in short order. 

    The rest of the card features mainly intriguing up-and-coming prospects or established veterans looking to get something going. Here's a look at the complete card and some of the biggest fights to watch.

Fight Card, Schedule and Odds

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    John Locher/Associated Press

    Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+ at 12 p.m. ET)

    • Michael Chiesa (+115, bet $100 to win $115) vs. Neil Magny (-137)
    • Warlley Alves (+185) vs. Mounir Lazzez (-230)
    • Isaac Villanueva (-134) vs. Vinicius Moreira (+110)
    • Roxanne Modafferi (+260) vs. Viviane Araujo (-335)
    • Matt Schnell (+105) vs. Tyson Nam (-130)
    • Lerone Murphy (-305) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+240)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 a.m. ET)

    • Omari Akhmedov (N/A) vs. Tom Breese (N/A)
    • Ricky Simon (-400) vs. Gaetano Pirrello (+300)
    • Su Mudaerji (-400) vs. Zarrukh Adashev (+300)
    • Dalcha Lungiambula (-143) vs. Markus Perez (+115)
    • Francisco Figueiredo (-143) vs. Jerome Rivera (+115)
    • Mike Davis (-200) vs. Mason Jones (+160)
    • Umar Nurmagomedov (N/A) vs. Sergey Morozov (N/A)
    • Victoria Leonardo (+170) vs. Manon Fiorot (-215)

Chiesa vs. Magny

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    John Locher/Associated Press

    Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny might be on similar trajectories right now, but they couldn't be more different stylistically. 

    Chiesa is a road-grading grappler. He'll look for the takedown any chance he can and wins in scrambles more often than not. His decision win over Rafael dos Anjos showed how well he can suffocate an opponent as he beat RDA at his own game to pick up his last win. 

    Magny on the other hand is one of the longer fighters at welterweight and will use that to his advantage. He is a slick striker who does a lot behind an effective jab. He can pick opponents apart at range and is adept at striking in the clinch. 

    The key to this fight will be distance. Magny wants to create it and turn this into as much of a kickboxing fight as Chiesa will allow. He has some takedowns of his own, but his wrestling isn't the as good as Chiesa's.

    Conversely, Maverick is going to need to look for opportunities to close the distance, work his takedowns and hope for submissions. 

    Magny is the slight favorite here, but he could be prime for the upset. His takedown defense isn't great, and he's been prone to fall into submissions before with four of his career losses coming by tap. 

    Prediction: Chiesa via second-round submission

Alves vs. Lazzez

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    Andre Penner/Associated Press

    The road from hot prospect to mid-level gatekeeper can be a short one. Warlley Alves once stood in Mounir Lazzez's shoes as an exciting up-and-comer. He started his UFC run with four straight wins including a submission win over Colby Covington. 

    Now, he's 30 years old and 3-4 in his last seven fights. 

    It's the circle of life in MMA that Alves is now Lazzez's second opponent in the Octagon, and even though Lazzez is 33 years old, it still feels like Alves is the elder statesman. 

    Lazzez caught attention in the welterweight division with a decision win in his UFC debut against a dangerous opponent in Abdul Razak Alhassan. 

    The Tunisian will be the much bigger man when the two step in the Octagon. He's two inches taller with a four-inch reach advantage and, as his "Sniper" moniker would suggest, is a powerful striker from outside. 

    Alves has been highly inconsistent throughout his UFC career. He's an explosive fighter with finishing capability when he's at his best, but there have been plenty of fights where he has essentially been a no-show. 

    Prediction: Lazzez via third-round TKO

Modafferi vs. Araujo

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    Julio Cortez/Associated Press

    The women's flyweight fight between Roxanne Modafferi and Viviane Araujo is one of the most important on the card.

    It's crucial for Araujo as it will tell us a lot about where she actually stands in the flyweight division. 

    The Brazilian got off to a strong start in the UFC with wins over Talita Bernardo and Alexis Davis before a decision loss to Jessica Eye brought down some of the hype. After losing the fight in 2019, she fought just once in 2020. 

    Granted, that fight was a win over Montana De La Rosa, but if the 34-year-old is going to ascend in the rankings it's going to be on the back of a busy 2021. 

    That starts with a fight against Modafferi who has proved exactly who she is. The veteran has alternated wins and losses over her last nine fights. She is a savvy grappler with a lot of heart and durability to hang tough. 

    Twenty-nine of her 42 fights have gone the distance, and the 38-year-old has only been finished once by knockout and three additional times by submission. What she lacks in athleticism she makes up for by making her opponents earn everything they get. 

    However, Araujo's athleticism and striking skills are a huge advantage here. She may not be able to draw the finish, but this is an opportunity for her to win with some style and make a statement that she's a force to be reckoned with in the division. 

    Prediction: Araujo via decision

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