Leaders | Borderline solution

The fate of the Irish frontier shows the compromises that Brexit entails

All sides will have to make painful choices

NORTHERN IRELAND barely featured in last year’s Brexit referendum campaign, in which Britons were more interested in matters of migration and money. Yet the future of the 500km border that separates the North from the Irish Republic—and which will soon separate the United Kingdom from the European Union—has become one of the trickiest issues of the exit talks.

The winding border has revealed a tangle in the “red lines” laid down by Theresa May. After leaving the EU, Britain wants to do its own trade deals with the rest of the world, which means leaving the EU’s customs union. And, like Ireland, it wants to maintain the open, invisible border that was enhanced by the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, ending three decades of violence. This presents a problem: having a different customs regime to the EU means imposing customs controls, which in turn implies that the border cannot be quite so seamless as today. Ireland, backed by the EU, has threatened to block any outcome involving a harder border, raising the risk that Britain could end up with no deal at all (see article).

The best way out of the mess would be to redraw the red line on customs. It would be in Britain’s interests to stay in a customs union with the EU regardless of the Irish question. Britain does half its trade in goods with Europe. Customs controls would cause delays and mountains of bureaucracy. Forgoing the ability to sign trade deals with other countries would hurt. But their promise is overestimated. A deal with, say, America would mean imposing American standards—think chlorine-washed chicken—on a public that has just voted to “take back control”. In a customs union with Europe, Britain would continue to enjoy trade deals with the 60-odd countries with which the EU already has arrangements.

Brexiteers will hear none of this. But abandoning the other red line, the commitment to an invisible border, would be worse. To do so would make both sides poorer. More seriously, it would break the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, which has ended a conflict in which 3,600 people were killed and set the island of Ireland on a long journey towards peace.

Rather than choose between its red lines, Britain seems prepared to blur them. It has reportedly suggested that Northern Ireland could be given new powers allowing it to follow the same regulatory regime as the EU in areas such as agriculture and energy, where there is most cross-border trade. The hope is that this would allow the Irish border to remain pretty invisible, even as Britain pursued a customs regime of its own.

Give and take

Such a plan would require all sides to compromise. Even with harmonised rules on agriculture, the border would probably have to be harder than Ireland would like. Other EU countries would have to put up with a frontier through which it would be relatively easy to smuggle untaxed goods. In a part of the world that has a history of organised crime, that is no small risk. Perhaps the biggest compromise would be needed from Northern Irish unionists, who resist any attempt to divide the province from the British mainland. Northern Ireland may soon be closer in regulatory terms to the Irish Republic than to Britain. It does not take much imagination to see where that precedent could eventually lead.

The fudge may be just enough to get Britain through to the next round of Brexit talks. But keeping all parties happy with the details of the final deal will not be easy. The episode shows how Brexit will require Britain to make painful choices—and impose them on its closest allies. In the year ahead there will be plenty more of that.

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Borderline solution"

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