The Complete Guide to the Ultimate Fighter Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott

Patrick Wyman@@Patrick_WymanX.com LogoMMA Senior AnalystDecember 1, 2016

The Complete Guide to the Ultimate Fighter Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott

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    Demetrious Johnson looks for the ninth defense of his flyweight title.
    Demetrious Johnson looks for the ninth defense of his flyweight title.Christian Petersen/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    The Ultimate Fighter 24 reaches its conclusion when finalist Tim Elliott takes on dominant flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson on Fox Sports 1 this Saturday.

    Johnson has run through the newly formed division, defending his title eight consecutive times. Only one of those fights, the first matchup with John Dodson, was even close. To spice up an otherwise lackluster weight class filled with fighters Johnson has already handled, the promotion turned to a fantastic idea: a season of The Ultimate Fighter filled with regional champions, the winner of which would face Johnson.

    That tournament produced Elliott, who had already compiled a 2-4 record in his first run with the UFC. Even in a division full of challengers who would be massive underdogs to Johnson, Elliott stands out. If he wins, it will be one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport. 

    Regardless, it's always a pleasure to watch Johnson work.

    The rest of the card features compelling matchups as well. In the co-main event, this season's coaches, Henry Cejudo and Joseph Benavidez, face off in a fantastic fight at 125 pounds. The winner will have a good chance at another title shot, especially if it's Benavidez.

    Welterweight veterans Jake Ellenberger and Jorge Masvidal clash in a fun matchup, while former bantamweight challengers Sara McMann and Alexis Davis meet in a compelling bout. The prelims are nothing special, but they should still provide some quality action. 

    Let's take a look at each matchup.

The Fight Pass Prelims

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    Elvis Mutapcic headlines the Fight Pass prelims.
    Elvis Mutapcic headlines the Fight Pass prelims.Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    Lightweights

    Dong Hyun Kim (13-8-3; 0-2 UFC) vs. Brendan O'Reilly (6-2, 1 NC; 1-2 UFC)

    Low-level lightweights meet in a loser-leaves-town matchup as Australia's O'Reilly drops to lightweight against South Korea's Kim. Kim (not the welterweight contender) was in a Fight of the Year contender with Polo Reyes last time out (a losing effort), while O'Reilly fell to Alan Jouban.

    Kim can shoot decent takedowns, does good work in the clinch and has some nasty submissions on the mat, but he's a brawler at heart and loves to sling leather. O'Reilly is an active wrestler, if not an especially technical one, and does his best work in the clinch. He's not much of a striker, though.

    Prediction: Kim might struggle with O'Reilly's takedown game, but he's just as good a clinch fighter and is vastly superior at range. The South Korean finds the knockout in the second round.

    Middleweights

    Elvis Mutapcic (15-4-1; 0-1-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Smith (25-12; 1-2 UFC)

    Veteran middleweights meet with their jobs in the UFC on the line. Mutapcic dropped his debut to Francimar Barroso and drew with Kevin Casey last time out, while Smith has split his two fights in his current run in the promotion.

    Mutapcic is a striker by trade, mixing vicious punching combinations and heavy kicks. His takedown defense has been solid, but he's not much of a grappler against high-level competition. Smith mostly prefers to strike as well, putting his 6'4" frame to good use with long kicks and straight punches. He can wrestle a bit as well.

    Prediction: This pits Mutapcic's power against Smith's height and reach. If Mutapcic can get inside, he should light up Smith with combinations, but Smith can stick him outside. The former seems a bit more likely, and the pick is Mutapcic by knockout in the first round.

The Fox Sports 1 Prelims

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    Gray Maynard tries to string together two wins in a row.
    Gray Maynard tries to string together two wins in a row.Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    Middleweights

    Josh Stansbury (8-2; 1-0 UFC) vs. Devin Clark (6-1; 0-1 UFC)

    Low-level middleweights open the prelims on Fox Sports 1. Stansbury, a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter 23, won a close decision over Cory Hendricks in July to secure a spot in the promotion. Clark debuted shortly afterward and suffered a knockout loss to Alex Nicholson.

    Stansbury is well-rounded and technical everywhere, but he's not a great athlete. Striking is the best facet of his game, and he strings together nice combinations. By contrast, Clark is a fantastic athlete with great speed and explosiveness. A former junior college wrestling champion, he shoots authoritative takedowns and throws heavy punches on the feet.

    Prediction: Stansbury has a deeper technical striking game than Clark, but his wrestling chops aren't on that level, and he's giving up a lot of athleticism. Clark finds the knockout in the second round.

    Strawweights

    Kailin Curran (4-3; 1-3 UFC) vs. Jamie Moyle (3-1; 0-0 UFC)

    TUF 23 competitor Moyle gets a shot in the UFC against Curran, who desperately needs a win after falling by submission to Felice Herrig in her last outing to drop her record in the promotion to 1-3. Moyle comes to the UFC from Invicta, where she won her first three bouts before coming up short against Sharon Jacobson in her last outing. She also lost to eventual finalist Amanda Bobby Cooper on TUF.

    Moyle is tiny for the division at 5'1" but makes up for it with relentless aggression and forward movement, slipping and rolling her way into the pocket where she unloads punching combinations. Her size is a serious problem when it comes to wrestling and the clinch, though, and she tends to eat shots coming in.

    Curran is a great athlete, but her skills are still raw. She throws combinations on the feet and does a good job combining kicks and punches, but she's hittable; she has nice takedowns but bad defensive wrestling skills; she's aggressive on the mat but has a bad habit of overextending and making herself vulnerable to submissions.

    Prediction: Close fight. If Moyle were a bit more imposing a wrestler or a more dangerous grappler, she'd have a great shot, but on the feet, Curran's volume and willingness to bang it out give her an edge. Curran takes a decision.

    Bantamweights

    Rob Font (12-2; 2-1 UFC)  vs. Matt Schnell (9-2; 0-0 UFC)

    Louisiana's Schnell, a competitor on this season of The Ultimate Fighter, steps up a division on short notice to take on Font. Schnell was the flyweight champion in Legacy Fighting Championship and won six in a row prior to appearing on TUF, while Font won his first two outings but fell short against John Lineker in May.

    Font is a heavy-handed puncher who maximizes his 5'8" height with a long jab and rangy kicks. He could stand to work in combination more often than he does, though, and doesn't respond well to pressure. Schnell likes to kick at range, but also has quick hands and owns a nasty submission game on the mat.

    Prediction: Schnell is a talented young fighter and a good pickup for the UFC, but coming in on short notice against a puncher like Font is a tough draw. Font takes a decision.

    Featherweights

    Gray Maynard (12-5-1, 1 NC; 10-5-1, 1 NC UFC) vs. Ryan Hall (5-1; 1-0 UFC)

    Former lightweight title contender Maynard draws The Ultimate Fighter 22 winner Hall in a solid featherweight bout. Despite winning a decision over Fernando Bruno in his last outing, Maynard's career is on its last legs; he has lost five of his last seven, four of them by knockout. BJJ ace Hall wasn't slated to to be a finalist after dropping a decision to Saul Rogers, but when Rogers was forced out, Hall made the most of his opportunity.

    Maynard isn't the fighter he was when he challenged Frankie Edgar twice for the lightweight title back in 2011. It's a shame that Maynard's chin doesn't hold up anymore, because he's never been a sharper boxer. He jabs well, puts together clean body-head combinations and has solid defensive skills. Even a sharp defensive fighter will still get hit, though, and as soon as he eats a clean shot, Maynard is in trouble.

    Strong wrestling skills back up Maynard's boxing. He shoots a lovely double, puts together nice chains and hits solid trips in the clinch. Defensively, he can stuff most opponents without trouble. On the mat, Maynard looks to control and land a few strikes, especially as his opponent gets back to his feet before getting back to striking.

    Hall is a grappler, pure and simple. He tosses out a few kicks and punches at range, but everything in his game is focused around getting his hands on his opponent. To that end, Hall shoots competent takedowns, but he's just as likely to roll under for a leg and use that to lock up a heel hook or, more likely, to try to sweep to top position.

    Whenever Hall's touching his opponent, he's capable of doing something unorthodox and dangerous. His back-takes are some of the best in the sport, both standing and on the mat, and he offers a combination of creativity and technical skill that's hard to match. There's no real solution for beating Hall's grappling game aside from staying calm and avoiding quick-paced scrambles. It's better not to give Hall any opportunities. 

    Prediction: Maynard is a vastly superior striker and, on paper, has the wrestling skills to keep this standing. He has struggled a bit with his takedown defense in recent outings, though, and if forced to grapple with Hall will likely get into real trouble. Maynard has never been submitted, but Hall will control him on the mat for a decision win.

Brandon Moreno vs. Ryan Benoit

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    Moreno had an impressive debut in the UFC.
    Moreno had an impressive debut in the UFC.Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    Flyweights

    Brandon Moreno (12-3; 1-0 UFC) vs. Ryan Benoit (9-4; 2-2 UFC)

    Mexico's Moreno fell in the first round of TUF 24 to top seed Alexandre Pantoja, but his performance was impressive enough to earn him a short-notice UFC gig against the surging Louis Smolka. Moreno submitted Smolka in a huge upset and looks to build on that momentum against Benoit, who has split his four UFC bouts and most recently took a tight decision from Fredy Serrano.

    Moreno is diverse and dangerous everywhere. He's a crisp, aggressive boxer on the feet with a heavy jab who specializes in heavy body-head punching combinations. Countering in the pocket is a specialty. Moreno is never satisfied with just one shot; everything comes in a sequence of two to four punches, all well-chosen and placed accurately. He works at an outstanding pace and can drown his opponent in volume.

    The rest of Moreno's game is solid. He's not a great defensive wrestler, but he can hit shot takedowns and trips of his own, and he excels in scrambles. Getting to the back is a specialty, and he has a slick front headlock as well.

    Benoit is a striker with big power in all his shots. He switches stances regularly, preferring to drop punching combinations from orthodox and heavy left kicks from southpaw. Timing and speed are his strong suits, which makes him a dangerous counterpuncher, but he has a bad habit of waiting too long and not throwing enough volume.

    That's the extent of Benoit's game. He's an average defensive wrestler and can hit the occasional takedown of his own but won't set the world on fire in that phase. He's athletic and likes to scramble but doesn't have much technical skill on the mat.

    Betting Odds

    Moreno -125 (bet $125 to win $100), Benoit +105 (bet $100 to win $105)

    Prediction

    Benoit has the power edge, but that's it. Moreno is bigger (5'7" to 5'5"), uses his height well, is the better combination puncher and has a much more dangerous submission game. Unless Benoit lands the big shot, which is a possibility on the hittable Moreno, he's going to get outworked for a decision or wind up in a submission. Moreno submits Benoit in the second round.

Sara McMann vs. Alexis Davis

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    McMann looks to win her second fight in a row.
    McMann looks to win her second fight in a row.Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    Bantamweights

    Sara McMann (9-3; 3-3 UFC) vs. Alexis Davis (17-6; 3-1 UFC)

    Former title contenders meet in a strong matchup at 135 pounds.

    McMann, an Olympic silver medalist in wrestling for the United States, snapped a two-fight losing streak, albeit to champions Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes, with a decision win over Jessica Eye last May. Canada's Davis has been out of action since April 2015 due to pregnancy, but prior to that, she submitted Sarah Kaufman to get back on track after her 16-second loss to Ronda Rousey.

    Davis can do a bit of everything and does it all pretty well. She's not a master technician on the feet, but she's durable and aggressive, pressing her way into the pocket with punching combinations and sharp, powerful kicks. She's particularly adept at hiding her kicks behind punches. Power isn't her hallmark and she's hittable, but she's willing to hang in and throw volume.

    The clinch is a real strong suit for Davis. She's strong and skilled in that phase, with a strong command of leverage and position and a knack for sneaking in hard knees. Wrestling is less of an asset for her, though, and she's more relentless than skilled in finishing her shots, trips and throws. At best, she's an average defender of takedowns.

    On the mat, Davis is lethal. She passes quickly and with a high level of technique while maintaining effortless control. She's aggressive with her submissions and puts together clean chains.

    McMann is an exceptional athlete blessed with great speed, strength and power. The former Olympian's skills have never really caught up with her physical talent, however, and she's still a work in progress. 

    On the feet, McMann is all about the right hand and explosive forward movement. She has trouble finding the right range and has a bad habit of standing too far outside and relying on her speed to cover the distance, which makes her vulnerable to counters.

    When this works, however, she carries tremendous power in her right hand and does an excellent job of punching her way into the clinch. McMann is nasty when she gets her hands on her opponent, showing off tremendous strength and stifling control against the fence. She excels at sneaking in hard knees to the body.

    McMann's takedown game is everything you'd expect from an Olympian. Her shot is explosive, and she puts together excellent chains, while her arsenal of trips and throws provides a nice complement. She has never been taken down. On top, McMann mostly looks to control, but she can generate power in her strikes when she postures up.

    Betting Odds

    McMann -180, Davis +158

    Prediction

    This is a tough fight to call. Davis is a much more active and diverse striker and has the skills to compete in the clinch, but she's at a tremendous athletic disadvantage and has never been a particularly imposing wrestler. If McMann can work takedowns, she has a good shot at grinding this out. The pick is McMann by decision.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Jared Cannonier

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    Moldova's Cutelaba looks to make it two in a row in the UFC.
    Moldova's Cutelaba looks to make it two in a row in the UFC.Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    Light Heavyweights

    Ion Cutelaba (12-2, 1 NC; 1-1 UFC) vs. Jared Cannonier (8-1; 1-1 UFC)

    Alaska's Cannonier makes the cut down to 205 pounds to take on Cutelaba, a native of Moldova, in a fun light heavyweight fight. The 22-year-old Cutelaba fell short in a submission loss to Misha Cirkunov in his debut but dominated Jonathan Wilson to get back on track. Cannonier, too, dropped his debut and rebounded in his last fight, knocking out Cyril Asker. 

    This will be Cannonier's first fight at 205 pounds after a pair of bouts at heavyweight. He's not tall for the division, standing only 5'11", but he's reasonably quick and has a long reach at 77 inches. With a background in boxing, striking is his wheelhouse. He operates from both stances, pumping a crisp jab before coming in with a couple of punches and then pivoting out to exit. Counters are a specialty, and he has big power.

    Excellent takedown defense keeps Cannonier standing, and he's competent in the clinch, but we know little about his grappling game against competent opponents and he has yet to shoot for a takedown in the UFC.

    Cutelaba is a brick-fisted bruiser. He's aggressive and likes to pressure, working his way into the pocket where he unloads heavy combinations of hooks. Every shot carries huge, fight-ending power, and he does an excellent job of mixing up his timing and punching around and through his opponent's guard. He gets hit a bit too much, but that's to be expected from a come-forward young fighter.

    Despite his power, Cutelaba works at a quick pace and maintains his volume even into the later rounds. He actually ran a marathon just a week after his last fight, which gives some indication of his cardio.

    The clinch is a strong secondary area for Cutelaba, and it's part of the reason he's happy to move forward aggressively: If he overshoots, he can simply grab a hold of an overhook or collar tie and drop punches and knees. He's a competent defensive wrestler and knows what he's doing on top, but he's not much of a grappler from his back.

    Betting Odds

    Cutelaba -225, Cannonier +185

    Prediction

    Cannonier is a cleaner, more technical striker whose counter game should give Cutelaba fits, and as a former heavyweight, the American should have a substantial size advantage that he can put to use with takedowns and clinch work. Cutelaba is a durable, vicious puncher, though, and has the cardio to punish Cannonier as the fight wears on. The Moldovan finds the knockout in the third round.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Jorge Masvidal

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    Jake Ellenberger looks to make it two wins in a row against Jorge Masvidal.
    Jake Ellenberger looks to make it two wins in a row against Jorge Masvidal.Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    Welterweights

    Jake Ellenberger (31-11; 10-7 UFC) vs. Jorge Masvidal (30-11; 7-4 UFC)

    Veteran welterweights collide in a fun matchup. 

    Ellenberger looked to be on his last legs in the UFC after a decision loss to Tarec Saffiedine last January that ran his record to just 1-5 in his last six, but the former contender rebounded in a big way with a first-round knockout of Matt Brown in July. Masvidal too has struggled a bit of late, though each of his last three losses has come by close split decision. He beat Ross Pearson in July to get back on track.

    The last few years have been rough for Ellenberger for reasons that show up clearly in his game. He has always been an excellent athlete with great speed and power, and though he has slowed down just a bit, he's still physically gifted. The problem seems to be mental, namely his ability to deal with pressure and pull the trigger on his shots.

    It's a shame, because when Ellenberger is operating at peak capacity, he's still a dangerous and skilled fighter. At his best, he probes with a sharp jab and heavy kicks before committing to blitzing punching combinations that pack dynamite power. He has a nice step-back counter game and usually strings together more than one shot at a time. He's not a volume striker, but every strike carries huge power.

    When he's not feeling it, however, Ellenberger hangs back and waits. He has a bad habit of getting stuck on the end of his opponent's strikes—Stephen Thompson's kicks, Rory MacDonald's jab—and eating shot after shot without exploding forward to cover the distance.

    Wrestling is a strong secondary skill set for Ellenberger. His double-leg takedown is explosive and authoritative, and defensively, he's quite difficult to bring down. On top, he's a heavy ground striker and can hit the occasional submission in transition or get to the back.

    Masvidal is crisp and technical in every phase of the fight. On the feet, where he generally prefers to be, Masvidal works behind one of the best jabs in the sport. He can probe with it, set a rhythm, maintain his distance and punish his opponent all at the same time. When he sits down on a combination, which he could stand to do more than he has in the recent past, Masvidal strings together beautiful sequences.

    Hard round kicks add some variety to Masvidal's game, but he's mostly a boxer. Head movement is one component of a layered defensive skill set that combines parries, blocks and angles into a coherent and effective whole that makes it hard to hit him cleanly. This also opens up his counterpunching game, likely the best facet of his striking arsenal.

    A nasty clinch fighter with a sharp elbows and knees on the inside, Masvidal's technical acumen makes up for his lack of raw size at 170 pounds. The same applies to his wrestling; he times his shots nicely and finishes with clean technique. Only elite takedown artists have succeeded in getting him to the mat, and holding him there is even more difficult. He mostly looks to control on top, though he can hit the occasional submission.

    Betting Odds

    Masvidal -260, Ellenberger +220

    Prediction

    It really depends on which Ellenberger shows up. An aggressive, power-punching Ellenberger who mixes heavy combinations with explosive takedowns would have a good shot at giving the sometimes lackadaisical Masivdal some trouble. 

    If he can't get the finish early, though, Ellenberger's confidence is likely to fade while Masvidal sticks him over and over with the jab. In that kind of fight, it's hard to see Ellenberger keeping pace. Add to that the fact that Masvidal is exceptionally durable, and it looks like a rough matchup for Ellenberger. The pick is Masvidal by decision.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Henry Cejudo

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    Benavidez and Cejudo face off with another title shot on the line.
    Benavidez and Cejudo face off with another title shot on the line.Ian Spanier/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    Flyweights

    Joseph Benavidez (24-4; 11-2 UFC) vs. Henry Cejudo (10-1; 4-1 UFC)

    Elite flyweights, the coaches of the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, meet with their futures in Demetrious Johnson's division on the line.

    Cejudo, an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling in 2008, fell to the longtime champion in just 2:49 last April after winning his first four outings in the UFC, while Benavidez has twice fallen to Johnson. Since that second defeat in December 2013, however, Benavidez hasn't lost. He beat Tim Elliott, then Dustin Ortiz, John Moraga, Ali Bagautinov and finally Zach Makovsky.

    If Cejudo wins, he might not get another title shot so soon after a crushing loss, but it would be hard to deny one to Benavidez after such an impressive streak.

    Benavidez can do everything, all of it at a high level. He's quick, athletic and packs legitimate power in all his shots, and he combines his physical gifts with elite skills.

    On the feet, Benavidez is a crisp combination striker. He moves a great deal and switches stances constantly, which creates angles from which to land and allows him to control space and distance. Pace is a strong suit, and he almost always throws more than one shot at a time.

    The best facet of Benavidez's striking arsenal is shot selection. He moves between head, body and legs in a single sequence and does an outstanding job of manipulating and taking advantage of his opponent's hand positioning and head movement. For example, Benavidez excels at catching ducking opponents with uppercuts, knees and kicks, or hiding head kicks behind punches.

    In sum, Benavidez is an organic, natural striker who reads his opponent with consummate skill. He also uses his strikes nicely to set up his level changes and has great timing on reactive takedowns when his opponents try to pressure him. Defensively, Benavidez is just a bit above average, but he's skilled, and it's difficult to hold him down.

    Scrambling is the best part of Benavidez's game. His front headlock is one of the nastiest in the sport, with a vicious guillotine and great sweeps to top position. On top, he's a smooth passer and can drop bombs when he postures up.

    Despite his elite background in freestyle wrestling, Cejudo's pedigree shows up mostly in his exceptional physical gifts. He's quick, strong, hits hard and generally shows off the athleticism one would expect from an Olympian at his level. 

    Cejudo has mostly chosen to strike during his tenure in the UFC. He has a background in amateur boxing in addition to his wrestling chops, and it shows up in his crisp, fundamentally sound punching combinations. He probes with his lead hand to feel out the distance and then prefers to leap in with two or three shots.

    Although he could stand to mix up his rhythm and work the body a bit more, he's a promising striker. He works at a steady if not blazing pace and isn't easy to hit. 

    The clinch is Cejudo's safety blanket. If he overshoots on a forward-moving combination or his opponent tries to pressure, Cejudo is happy to tie up, where he digs for underhooks and delivers a sharp knee or two before separating and getting back to range.

    When he wants to dig into his bag of tricks, Cejudo is still an outstanding wrestler. He can do it all in this phase, from explosive doubles to single-leg lifts to inside trips, all executed with fantastic technique. He has never been taken down in his MMA career, and that seems unlikely to change now.

    Cejudo mostly uses his takedowns as a change of pace, establishing control only briefly in order to land a few shots before getting back to his feet. The combination of clinch entries and takedowns serves to disrupt his opponent's rhythm and prevent him from finding sustained success on the feet.

    Betting Odds

    Benavidez -200, Cejudo +170

    Prediction

    This is a great matchup, and a close one. Those betting are slightly underselling Cejudo's chances; if Zach Makovsky could take Benavidez down four times, so can Cejudo. His wrestling game is still a factor, and it's not hard to see a scenario in which Benavidez outscores him on the feet but Cejudo accumulates enough takedowns and control in the clinch to edge the judges' scorecards.

    With that said, getting takedowns against Benavidez and holding him on the mat long enough for them to matter while avoiding the scrambles are two different propositions. The more likely scenario involves Benavidez conceding a few takedowns and eating some shots in the clinch but working his combination game at range and wearing Cejudo down to the legs and body. Benavidez takes a close decision.

Demetrious Johnson vs. Tim Elliott

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    Demetrious Johnson is the king of the flyweights.
    Demetrious Johnson is the king of the flyweights.David Becker/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

    Flyweight Championship

    Demetrious Johnson (24-2-1; 12-1-1 UFC) vs. Tim Elliott (13-6-1; 2-4 UFC)

    The veteran Elliott gets an unlikely shot at gold against dominant champion Demetrious Johnson. Ten consecutive opponents have fallen to Johnson, and he has defended his flyweight title eight times, most recently knocking out Henry Cejudo in just under three minutes. At this point, Johnson isn't competing with his fellow flyweights; he's chasing the all-time greats of the sport.

    After his first stint in the UFC, which ended with consecutive losses to Ali Bagautinov, Joseph Benavidez and Zach Makovsky, Elliott has rebounded with three consecutive wins over decent regional competition. To secure his title shot on The Ultimate Fighter, Elliott ran through four solid opponents. Charlie Alaniz and Matt Schnell fell by submission, and Elliott won tough fights over Eric Shelton and Hiromasa Ogikubo.

    For Johnson, this is just one more opponent in a long run of contenders who haven't had much of a shot against his greatness. For Elliott, it's a shot at one of the epic upsets in MMA history.

    Johnson is a marvel. The way he blends all of his different pieces of his game together into a coherent package worth more than the sum of its parts is stunning to watch, and there's a serious argument to be made that he's the most skilled fighter of all time.

    Transitions are the heart of Johnson's approach. He uses strikes to cover his level changes and open up clinch entries, uses clinch breaks and level changes to distract his opponent from strikes and hits takedowns just to create an opening to land knees and punches as his opponent stands up.

    Johnson's mind works like a flow chart operating at light speed. His opponent's response to a feinted level change tells him whether he should commit to the takedown or try a strike off the feint next time; a particular counter to a strike tells him there will be an opening for a level change or a clinch entry; a certain approach to takedown defense against the fence tells him to abandon the takedown and flurry with punches.

    The animating concept behind Johnson's technical skill is pressure. Perhaps because of the cerebral nature of his game, Johnson's aggression has been overlooked, but when given an option, he prefers to march his opponent down with forward movement and pin him against the fence. Few fighters in the sport use the cage more effectively than Johnson, whether in the clinch, with takedown chains or to land strikes.

    Johnson has exceptional raw speed, but he maximizes it with crisp cage-cutting footwork and by switching stances mid-combination, which allows him to cover distance even more quickly than his physical gifts would suggest. He's also tremendously efficient and never takes a step more than he has to.

    The clinch is the best piece of Johnson's game. His entries using strikes are outstanding, which means he usually starts in a good spot. But his command of position and the subtleties of leverage are off the charts. He'll grab a wrist, elevate and then drive home a knee to the liver before moving to a frame and landing a knee to the head, then push off to create space to land an elbow, all in the space of a few seconds.

    The double is Johnson's takedown of choice, and he shoots one of the most technical and explosive ones in the sport. He uses trips and singles much less often. Defensively, Johnson isn't bulletproof, but he's hard to hold down.

    On top, Johnson is devastating. He's a brutal ground striker when he postures up, passes easily and is happy to give up position for submissions when the mood strikes him.

    Elliott is a funky, unorthodox fighter. He's huge for the division at 5'7" and employs a strange mixture of footwork, stance-switching, head movement, low hands and a quick pace, kind of like a knock-off of Dominick Cruz. 

    The jab is the foundation of Elliott's game at range. It enforces his height and reach and sets his preferred rhythm and pace. He'll tap, tap, tap away with probing shots before doubling or tripling up on hard jabs that he follows with a right hand or a low kick, then drops in counters as he slips away. His low hand positioning makes it hard to see his punches coming, especially his up-jab. 

    Elliott likes to move forward, using that jab to edge his way into range and then unloading with combinations. The sheer pace at which he fights can be overwhelming, and he routinely throws 20 or 25 strikes in a minute. They're not all hard, but his high volume of tapping shots set up occasional, much sharper punches that carry stinging force.  

    The problem with Elliott's game is defense. He moves his head constantly and his height is deceptive, making him hard to hit cleanly, but the combination of his pace and preference for constantly being in range means that he eats a great many shots.

    As solid as he is at range, Elliott's also an excellent wrestler and grappler. He's an active takedown artist with a nice combination of singles, doubles and trips, and he has a particular preference for messy, dirty, scrambling types of fights on the mat. It's in those spaces between that Elliott really shines; he loves switches and front headlocks and has a real knack for finding submissions and positional advances.

    Defensive wrestling isn't Elliott's strong suit, though, and that love of scrambles can be a serious drawback with athletic, skilled grapplers. He takes risks and gives up position, and that has repeatedly cost him in the past.

    Betting Odds

    Johnson -1275, Elliott +625

    Prediction

    Elliott is an interesting matchup for Johnson. He's big, the biggest fighter Johnson has faced since he fought Dominick Cruz back in 2011, and he has the cardio not to be overwhelmed by Johnson's quick pace. He's excellent in the grappling transitions, where Johnson tends to feast on less skilled opponents, and could overpower the smaller champion in wrestling exchanges.

    On this basis, there's a viable game plan for Elliott based around sticking the smaller Johnson outside with the jab and then trying to scramble with him whenever the two fighters tie up. The dirtier and grimier the fight and the quicker the pace, the better it will be for Elliott.

    Size isn't enough, though, and Johnson's speed, diversity and depth of skill will be the difference here. It might take him a while to find his path to victory, but eventually, he'll find it, most likely in the clinch. Johnson wears Elliott down and finishes him with a choke in the fourth round.

    Odds courtesy of Odds Shark; current as of Wednesday.

    Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.

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