GOP Delegate Projection (Update)

Back in March after the 2nd Super Tuesday, I posted my predictions for the upcoming primaries here on FR. Here's the update.

Here's the thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3410261/posts

I explained how the so-called political experts were way off in saying that Trump couldn't possibly win the needed 60% of the remaining delegates in order the clinch the nomination prior to the GOP convention since he wasn't close to that % up to that point. To suggest that the percentages with up to 17 candidates wouldn't change much with only 3 candidates moving forward was ludicrous. Then again, that's the media for you.

In my final analysis I stated: "Overall, this means that Trump projects to win about 67% of the remaining delegates, while Cruz would win about 26%, and Kasich 7%. This would easily give Trump the nomination. If you use the NY Times Delegate Tool and set these %s to the respective candidates for the remaining races, you will see that Donald Trump will be just under the 1,237 delegates needed to win after the Washington caucus on 5/24/16. There are still 5 states to go after that, including winner-take-all California."

So how did the candidates do in the primaries since that projection? Trump has actually won close to 73% of the delegates, Cruz 25% and Kasich 2%, so I was quite close, even slightly underestimating Trump's numbers. If Cruz had stayed in the race through the June primaries, the numbers may have indeed been closer to what I forecasted. If Trump sweeps the remaining delegates through the Washington election (quite likely with Cruz out of the race) he would have close to 1200 delegates, so slightly below the magic 1237 number, just as predicted.

The incompetent media was lying to you then, or they were too stupid (or too lazy) to run a few simple numbers as I did. Or likely all of the above. And they will continue to incompetently lie as we approach the general election. Never forget that.

I will be doing some additional number crunching and analysis for the general election shortly, which will include some surprising, perhaps shocking predictions. Hang on folks, it's going to be a wild, wild ride.

Well got an email from Kasich this evening asking for money. I would hate being the guy responsible for processing those contributions. I hate when I have nothing to do at work. The day just drags. I guess Kasich is expecting a big surge gratis the Cruz supporters he expects will now be supporting him. I just do not see much if any bump for him from Cruz supporters.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.